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Articles / 16 October 2026

The fork in the road.

Why AI sovereignty may decide the future of Western civilisation.

AI is the most powerful technology of our lifetime, and it will either spread power out to individuals or gather it into a few massive corporations, or into the government. We believe which way it goes is being decided now, and that the answer starts with a simple question: who owns the AI that runs your work?

The argument in one minute

  • Every big wave of technology started open. Personal computers, the web and phones each ended with most people paying a toll to a few walled gardens.
  • AI is at that fork now, and it is far more powerful. This time it is not just about software. It is about whether the individual gets stronger or more dependent.
  • The answer is AI sovereignty: people, businesses and organisations owning the factory that runs their work, and plugging in any AI they choose.
  • It is cheap to agree on that now. In five years, whoever holds the foothold will fight to keep it.

A fork in the road

Every wave starts open. Most end at a toll gate.

Look back at the big turns in technology and you see the same fork again and again. For a while, something new is wide open. Anyone can build on it, and the ideas pour in.

Then, as we see it, one path wins. A few companies grow big enough to set the rules, and everyone who comes after pays a toll to get through their gate. The builders, the businesses and the customers all end up inside a couple of walled gardens, and it slows down the people with the next good idea.

We believe AI is standing at that fork right now. This time, we think we can take the other path.

Three forks we have passed

Personal computers, the web, then phones.

Each of these was a great technology. Each one started open. And each time, most people ended up inside a few walled gardens.

Four forks in the road, from personal computers to AI A line of time runs down the left. Four times it reaches a fork. Personal computers: open, anyone could write PC software; it ended with two systems on most desktops, behind a toll gate. The web: open, anyone could publish a site; it ended with a few dominant platforms. Phones: open, a computer in every pocket; it ended with two app stores that set the rules. AI, now: the fork is here. One path leads to an open garden, your factory with any model; the other to a walled garden, your factory on their platform. TIME WAVE 1Personal computers TOLL WHAT WAS OPENAnyone could write PC software WHERE IT ENDEDTwo systems on most desktops WAVE 2The web TOLL WHAT WAS OPENAnyone could publish a site WHERE IT ENDEDA few dominant platforms WAVE 3Phones TOLL WHAT WAS OPENA computer in every pocket WHERE IT ENDEDTwo app stores set the rules NOWAI The fork TOLL OPEN GARDENYour factory, any model WALLED GARDENYour factory on their platform
Dashed: a path that was open. Heavy outline: where most people ended up. A bar across the path is the toll gate. In the last row the choice is still open.

Wave 1

Personal computers

What was open
A personal computer let anyone write software and sell it to anyone who owned one.
Where it ended
Two operating systems came to run most desktop computers. Linux, which is free and open source, runs most websites, but it stayed small on the desktop.

Source: StatCounter, desktop operating system share

Wave 2

The web

What was open
Anyone could publish a website or a blog, and anyone could read it.
Where it ended
Much of what people share and read moved onto a few large platforms, which decide what is seen. The web's inventor, Tim Berners-Lee, made the same point in 2018.

Source: The Register on Tim Berners-Lee's 2018 letter

Wave 3

Phones

What was open
A computer in every pocket, and a new chance for every builder.
Where it ended
Two mobile operating systems run nearly every phone. Their two app stores set the rules for what gets in, and take a fee on many of the sales made through them.

Source: StatCounter, mobile operating system share

So whatEach time, the open path was there. Each time, most people took the easy one, and paid the toll for years.

Said clearly and proudly

AI is creating real value.

Before going any further, I want to say this plainly: the AI companies are creating a lot of value, and we should not deny it.

Their models help people write, research, plan, build software and do real work across a business. A lot of people are hating on AI way too much right now. We disagree with them.

Nothing in this article is an argument against AI, or against the companies that build it. We believe every business should use their models. The question is not whether to use AI. It is where your business keeps the thing it builds with it.

The right analogy

The computer, not the subscription.

I believe the right analogy here is not the SaaS revolution. It is the computer.

When computers came into business, owners did not hand their computer to a third party that would also sell it to their competitors. They bought their own computer, and they installed what they needed on it to run their business. That is what worked.

We believe AI needs the same thing. Call it AI sovereignty: your own factory, holding all the work your business does, on hardware you own or control. Then plug the AI providers in. They can advise you. They can do individual tasks. And you decide, by your own judgment, how much to involve them, or how little.

A walled garden beside an open garden Top, the walled garden: inside a double wall run by the platform, their model sits beside your factory, with your skills, tasks, agents, workflows, your data and maybe your customers, and the model can see all of it. Easy to start, hard to leave. A dashed arrow leads out of the wall to a risk: it could become a template for others. Bottom, the open garden: your factory sits on hardware you own or control. Two closed models and an open model plug in from outside, to advise and to do tasks. Swap a model and the factory stays. WALLED GARDEN: YOUR FACTORY ON THEIR PLATFORM Their model sees all of it Your factory skills, tasks, agents, workflows, your data, maybe your customers Easy to start. Hard to leave. could become a template for others THE RISK OPEN GARDEN: A FACTORY YOU OWN Your factory skills, tasks, agents, workflows, your data, kept where you decide Swap a model; the factory stays. HARDWARE YOU OWN OR CONTROL Closed model Closed model Open model PLUGGED IN to advise, to do tasks
Top: the factory lives inside the platform. Bottom: the factory is yours, and each model is a service you plug in, as much or as little as you choose.

In one lineUse the models. Own the factory.

The honest trade-off

The strongest models are closed. That is fine.

This is a trade-off, and I want to say it plainly. As we see it today, the smartest models and agents are closed, not open source. Many businesses will choose them, and I respect that choice.

Our advice is only this: keep your operating system on a system of your own, and plug those models into it. Then, if you ever want to change models, you change what runs your factory, not the factory. That is what a factory you own is for: no rebuilding, no moving house.

Connections to your data are another switching cost. Rebuilding them each time you change AI provider is part of what keeps businesses where they are.

And if you want to move to open models, you can do that too. In fact, we believe open models run much better once a factory is well defined: a clear data model, clear processes, everything well refined. That suggests a path.

Build on frontier models, maintain on open models Three steps run left to right: build, refine, maintain. A frontier model does the thinking for build and refine. At the swap, an open model takes over for maintain. Underneath, one line runs the whole way: your factory stays the same throughout. WHO DOES THE THINKING CLOSED Frontier model OPEN Open model SWAP STEP 1 Build design the factory STEP 2 Refine test and define it STEP 3 Maintain run it day to day YOUR FACTORY The same factory the whole way: the same skills, tasks, agents and records. Only the model running it changes.
Build and refine where the extra intelligence pays for itself. Once the work is defined and mostly maintenance, move it to an open model.

Build and refine your factories on frontier models. Test them. Once the processes are defined and you are mostly maintaining them, you can swap that work to open models.

We think that once a business runs factories, its AI usage could grow ten or even a hundred times, and that much more of it will be profitable use of AI.

Everyone can win

This is good for the model companies too.

Much of what a model company sells is usage: AI work, priced by the token. We believe businesses that run factories will use far more of it. Even if a business moves a large share of that work to open models, we think the total it buys from the model companies still grows. If you are in the business of selling tokens, you win in this future.

Their product teams, who are excited about building operating systems on top of their own products, may like this less. That is fair. I am sure they will keep building fun, exciting, easy products, and many people will love them. We are glad they exist.

My advice to business owners stays the same, and I give it almost as a fiduciary would: keep your operating system separate, on something you own, and invite the best models in.

The everyone wins loop A loop of four steps. Businesses own their factories. Factories run more AI work. Model companies sell more usage. Everyone gets better tools, and more businesses own their factories. A dashed branch from the model companies shows some work moving to open models. In the middle: everyone wins, a loop, not a toll. BUSINESSES Own their factories FACTORIES Run more AI work MODEL COMPANIES Sell more usage EVERYONE Gets better tools Everyone wins a loop, not a toll Some work moves to open models
The loop we believe in: the more businesses own their factories, the more AI work there is for everyone, closed and open.

The stakes for people

More than a fork in software.

So far this article has been about open source and walled gardens, and about businesses. I believe the stakes go further. This technology is powerful enough that the fork may be one for Western civilisation: whether AI becomes a centralising force or a decentralising one. Whether it strengthens the individual, or leaves the individual beholden to a few massive corporations, or to the government.

There is a lot of talk of AI doom, and we believe most of it is unfounded. But this risk is real: whether AI concentrates power or spreads it. If we get this one right, and AI strengthens the individual rather than big corporations or governments, we believe much of the rest falls into place.

None of this makes the AI companies villains. As we said earlier, they create real value. The question is one of structure, not of bad actors: who holds the factory. Power that gathers in one place tends to stay there, whoever holds it and however good their intentions.

Two paths, for real people.

Here is how the two paths look for a worker, a small business and an organisation. It comes down to three things: bargaining power, dependency, and who can see your work.

Person

An individual worker

If a platform holds it
Your best methods, your agents and your record of work live in an account someone else controls. The rules, the price and your access are theirs to change, and if the account is closed, much of what makes you good at your job can go with it.
If you own it
Your methods and agents are yours, and they move with you from one job to the next. You bring more to the table, and you can walk away from it. That is bargaining power.

Business

A small business owner

If a platform holds it
Your processes, your data and perhaps your customers sit with a company that sets the rules, the prices and the terms of access, and that can see how you work. People have seen accounts on social platforms and app stores shut off, sometimes with no real way to appeal. A business built on one account carries that risk.
If you own it
Your factory runs on hardware you own or control. You choose the models, compare prices, and change suppliers when a better offer comes. No single supplier can switch your business off.

Organisation

An organisation

If a platform holds it
The record of how the organisation works, and of the people it serves, is held by a third party. The organisation depends on that party's prices and policies, and on whom it lets see those records.
If you own it
The organisation keeps its own records, decides who sees them, and answers to its members, customers or donors rather than to a supplier's terms.

Who can see your work.

One difference is quiet but real. In United States law, records you hand to a third party have generally had weaker privacy protection than records you keep yourself. Courts call this the third-party doctrine. The Supreme Court applied it to a customer's bank records in United States v. Miller (1976), and to the numbers a person dials, as recorded by the phone company, in Smith v. Maryland (1979).

In Carpenter v. United States (2018), the Court narrowed it: the government generally needs a warrant to obtain historical cell phone location records from a carrier. The Court called that decision a narrow one, and the law here is still developing.

This is not legal advice. Our point is modest: what you store with a company can be easier for the government to reach than what you keep yourself. That is one more reason to keep your factory where you decide.

An old distrust of concentrated power.

Western tradition has long distrusted concentrated power of any kind, whether a company holds it or a government does. Antitrust law is one example. In 1911 the Supreme Court found that Standard Oil had broken the Sherman Act and upheld an order to dissolve it. In 1982 the United States settled its antitrust case against AT&T with a decree that broke up the Bell System, and on 1 January 1984 the local Bell telephone companies were separated from AT&T.

We take no side in any current political debate. Our point is about structure: when a few hands hold the tools everyone depends on, the individual loses leverage, whoever those hands belong to. AI can go either way. We believe it should spread power out.

Two paths from one fork: centralising and decentralising One fork, AI now, leads to two paths. The first, centralising: a worker, a business and an organisation each send their work up to a few platforms, or to whoever can reach them, and the rules, prices, access and who can see are theirs. The second, decentralising: the worker, the business and the organisation each own their factory, and any model plugs in to each one from below. Each picks its models and can change them; the rules, data and who can see stay with them. ONE FORK AI, now PATH 1: CENTRALISING A worker A business An organisation A few platforms or whoever can reach them Rules, prices, access and who can see: theirs. PATH 2: DECENTRALISING A workerown factory A businessown factory Organisationown factory Any model Any model Any model Each picks its models and can change them. Rules, data and who can see: yours.
Top: work and power flow up to a few platforms, or to whoever can reach them. Bottom: each worker, business and organisation owns its factory and plugs in the models it chooses.

The question under the forkDoes AI make the individual stronger, or more dependent? We believe it should make them stronger. Owning your factory is how you take that path.

Why now

Bake AI sovereignty in at the beginning.

We believe this is like the industrial revolution, and even bigger. A change that size sets its patterns early, while everything is still being built.

So we believe AI sovereignty should be baked in at the beginning. Businesses and organisations should own their own AI from the start: the factory that runs their work, on hardware they control, with any model they choose.

Agreeing to that now is cheap for everyone, the AI companies included, and as we argued above, everybody can win: the businesses, the AI model companies, and everybody else.

If we wait five years, it may be too late. The companies that gain a foothold by then will be strongly motivated to keep it, and what is cheap to agree today will be expensive to undo.

This is the forkThe cheapest time to agree is now. It will not stay cheap.

Why the Foundation exists

It is free and open source. Take it.

That is why the Infinity OS Foundation exists: to make owning your AI the easy path from the start, so that everybody in this industry wins, long term.

Our mission:

Every business should own its AI. The Infinity OS Foundation exists to help business owners build, own and run their own AI factories, on hardware they control, with any model they choose.

Because what we publish is free and open source, I encourage you to take it. It is early: today that means the early public code and the open starter, all MIT licensed. If our mission and our principles fit how you want to run your business, start with one of the three ways in.

Download Infinity OS

It is early. Today you can download the early public code and the open starter, all MIT licensed. The version being built now is not public yet.

Download Infinity OS

Read our articles

The three ages of AI, why your factory should be yours, and why we run work from queues instead of inboxes.

Read our articles

See our repos

Six public repositories, each with its licence in the repository. Measured on 14 October 2026.

See our repos

Infinity OS is being built and is not yet released. Nothing in this article describes a released product.

Sources